Timber (Litter and Understory) Brush (2 feet) Medium Logging Slash

Red fir fuel type with montane shrub and brush understory interspersed with pockets of non-burnable fuels in granite rock outcrops. Fir trees are large diameter, over 100 ft. tall, and suffer from insect and disease mortality, leading to a significant snag component with large amounts of heavy dead and down coarse woody debris. Most active fire behavior has come from the dense, closed canopy red fir stands, where torching and isolated crown fire pockets have also contributed to spotting. Fuels in 2017 fire footprints have less closed canopy but contain significant dead and down with standing snags, increasing spotting potential. Surface spread rates are lower in the Empire Fire (2017) Footprint, but spotting continues to drive spread. Montane shrubs and brush in the understory are generally available to burn but are not at critical fuel moisture levels. Heavy dead and down fuels are dry, with fuel moisture in 1,000 hr. fuel around 12%.

Minimal, Spotting, Creeping, Smoldering

Continued creeping fire behavior remains present in areas within the interior. Large dead and down interior fuels continue to consume readily. Spot fires remain a persistent threat and are the primary risk of fire spread outside the current fire perimeter. Due to the large amount of standing dead trees, within the current burn scar from pervious fires, isolated interior single tree torching potential remains. Fuels adjacent to the fire perimeter remain receptive to new ignitions and will support additional fire spread if ignited.

Strengthen primary and contingency lines. Employ rotary-wing aviation assets to check fire spread, moderate flame lengths to thresholds suitable for direct attack. Continue to construct direct control line west of Bridalveil Creek towards Division T break. 

In Branch 5 all Divisions are patrolling and mopping up to extent necessary to keep the fire in its current control lines. In Branch 10, Division F, K, and M are patrolling, mopping up and reinforcing control lines as necessary to keep the fire in current control lines.

12 hours: (Friday Night): Overnight heavy interior fuels will continue to smolder. Fire anticipated to remain within it’s current footprint No growth anticipated.

24 hours: (Saturday): A system change in the current weather pattern continues. There are strong indications of a marked increase in wind. Strong winds may pose a direct threat to established control lines. Interior fuels may exhibit active fire behavior, due to increased ventilation. Where heat sources remain adjacent to unburned fuels, spot fires may occur more readily. This may lead to fire spread beyond the current perimeter. Active fire spread may occur, where alignment of slope and wind exist, should spot fires become well established beyond current control lines.

48 hours: (Sunday): Precipitation is anticipated to occur over the fire area. This will dimmish fire behavior almost completely. Large heavy interior fuels may continue to smolder. Spread is not likely due of fuels exterior to the fire perimeter being at their saturation point.

72 hours: (Monday): Precipitation is anticipated to occur over the fire area. This will dimmish fire behavior almost completely. Large heavy interior fuels may continue to smolder. Spread is not likely due of fuels exterior to the fire perimeter being at their saturation point.

Anticipated after 72 hours: (Tuesday): Low pressure system and associated precipitation will begin to depart the fire area. This will lead to a return to warm and dry conditions. Fuels will begin to dry out and increase their receptiveness. Further fire behavior and spread expectations will be dependent on the totality of the rain event in days.

Observed: Fair weather cumulus is bringing partly cloudy conditions over the fire area today leading to temperatures several degrees cooler, mostly in the 60s to near 70, and relative humidity a bit higher, in the 25-35% range. Southwest winds have been similar to yesterday’s mainly 3-8 mph with gusts 10-18 mph, and are expected to increase a bit further over yesterday’s values later this afternoon into the evening. Overnight: Mostly clear and about 10 degrees cooler on the ridges and 5 degrees cooler in the low spots with a shallow inversion in the valleys. Drainage winds, mostly from the east, are likely to develop in the evening hours, but increasing ridge top winds overnight into the morning are likely to disrupt inversion formation at higher elevations. Relative humidity recoveries are likely to be higher, in the 55-75% range Smoke will likely settle into the drainages around the fire area. 24-72 Hour Forecast: A low pressure trough will spin over the area Sunday thru Tuesday leading to breezy to windy southerly winds Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will trend colder with higher is 40s and 50s and lows in the upper 20s, 30s, and lower 40s. Partly cloudy skies Saturday will become mostly cloudy Sunday with rain likely later in the day. Periods of rain and perhaps some mountain snow are likely Sunday night through Tuesday morning. Winds will be lighter and westerly Monday.

Extended (After 72 Hours): Cool conditions with highs in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 20s and 30s are likely next week. After lingering clouds Tuesday, clearing is expected Wednesday through Thursday.